Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
