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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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