Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
